Time Auction Simulator (Draft)
From the, “programming for programming’s sake” desk: this is the README of a smol simulator we wrote after we watched S02E04 of The Devil’s Plan.
Time Auction Simulator
This is a simulator for different strategies in for The Devil’s Plan season two day two (S02E04) prison challenge, Time Auction.
Why?
The Devil’s Plan is a Korean reality show. It is far-and-away the most cerebral reality show we have ever seen. Each game day, the contestants play in several novel complex social games—think: mafia on steroids. These games tend to have mixture of game theory, puzzle solving, and social engineering. We highly recommend it! (We watch with English dubs; don’t @ us 😉)
Most of the games in The Devil’s Plan would be tedious to try to simulate in software because: the rules are complex, most actions in the game cause ripple effects which would be tedious to model, and because humans are messy. However, when watching episode 4 of season 2, we were struck by the Prison Game, Time Auction, as a game where each person could reasonably have an algorithm for how they were going to play before they walked in the game room, eschew human emotions, and execute that algorithm. And indeed, several players do come up with algorithms, and the winner did just that.
This made us wonder: what is the optimal strategy? And we nerd-sniped ourselves into writing this little simulator to find a potentially optimal strategy.
It’s presently incomplete. The basics of the simulator live in main.py, and different strategies live in strats. We’d like to add many more strategies, and then run simulations of all combinations of those strategies to arrive at a potentially optimal strategy.
Rules for Time Auction
(source: https://namu.wiki/w/데블스 플랜: 데스룸/2일차#s-5)
- “Time Auction” is a game where you bid using time to win a token.
- Each player is given 10 minutes of auction funds. Time is recorded to the nearest 0.1 second.
- The game consists of a total of 19 auctions.
- Each player has a personal button in front of them, which is hidden from other players.
- At the start of a round, all players stand ready with their buttons pressed.
- When the auction starts, a 5-second countdown will begin, and after 5 seconds, your holding time will begin to deduct.
- If you do not wish to participate in the auction, you can abandon the auction by releasing the button within the countdown time.
- Each player’s holding time is not disclosed to anyone, including themselves, and only the time during the auction can be checked on the scoreboard. In other words, you must accurately remember the time you used and participate in the auction.
- Players participating in the auction can release the button to stop time when the amount of time they wish to bid has been deducted.
- If all remaining time is used up, the button is automatically pushed out immediately. In other words, bidding beyond the remaining time is not possible.[27]
- When the last remaining player releases the button, the clock on the scoreboard stops and that player is awarded the winning token.
- It is not disclosed who participated in the auction, only the winning bidder of that round is disclosed.
- If two or more players bid using the same time to the nearest 0.1 second, the winning token for that round is lost.
- After 19 auctions, the player who has won the most winning tokens wins the game and one piece (used in other parts of The Devil’s Plan).
- If the number of markers is tied, the player with more time on the board wins the piece.
- If this is still a tie, no piece will be awarded.
- The player who bids the fewest winning tokens is ultimately eliminated.
- If the number of markers is tied, the one with less time is eliminated.
Simulator Prerequisites
- Python 3.8 or later
Simulator Usage
List of Strategies
./main.py --list
Example
$ ./main.py --list
Available Strategies:
ed-15 | Exponential Decay 15%: bid high at the start and decay 15% each round
ere | Every Round Even: bid evenly in each round
lr-4 | Bid all remaining time evenly in the last 4 rounds
lr-5 | Bid all remaining time evenly in the last 5 rounds
tot1 | team of three (1): bid evenly on every third round starting on round 1
tot2 | team of three (2): bid evenly on every third round starting on round 2
tot3 | team of three (3): bid evenly on every third round starting on round 3
Run a Simulation
./main.py <strategy1> <strategy2> <strategy3> <strategy4> <strategy5> <strategy6>
Example
$ ./main.py tot1 tot2 tot3 lr-4 lr-5 ed-15
Round 1 winner: tot1 with bid 100.0s
tot1 100.0 bid 1 wins 500.0s left
ed-15 93.6 bid 0 wins 506.4s left
tot2 0.0 bid 0 wins 600.0s left
tot3 0.0 bid 0 wins 600.0s left
lr-4 0.0 bid 0 wins 600.0s left
lr-5 0.0 bid 0 wins 600.0s left
Round 2 winner: tot2 with bid 100.0s
tot2 100.0 bid 1 wins 500.0s left
ed-15 79.6 bid 0 wins 426.8s left
tot3 0.0 bid 0 wins 600.0s left
lr-4 0.0 bid 0 wins 600.0s left
lr-5 0.0 bid 0 wins 600.0s left
tot1 0.0 bid 1 wins 500.0s left
Round 3 winner: tot3 with bid 100.0s
tot3 100.0 bid 1 wins 500.0s left
ed-15 67.6 bid 0 wins 359.2s left
lr-4 0.0 bid 0 wins 600.0s left
lr-5 0.0 bid 0 wins 600.0s left
tot1 0.0 bid 1 wins 500.0s left
tot2 0.0 bid 1 wins 500.0s left
Round 4 winner: tot1 with bid 100.0s
tot1 100.0 bid 2 wins 400.0s left
ed-15 57.5 bid 0 wins 301.7s left
lr-4 0.0 bid 0 wins 600.0s left
lr-5 0.0 bid 0 wins 600.0s left
tot2 0.0 bid 1 wins 500.0s left
tot3 0.0 bid 1 wins 500.0s left
Round 5 winner: tot2 with bid 100.0s
tot2 100.0 bid 2 wins 400.0s left
ed-15 48.9 bid 0 wins 252.8s left
lr-4 0.0 bid 0 wins 600.0s left
lr-5 0.0 bid 0 wins 600.0s left
tot3 0.0 bid 1 wins 500.0s left
tot1 0.0 bid 2 wins 400.0s left
Round 6 winner: tot3 with bid 100.0s
tot3 100.0 bid 2 wins 400.0s left
ed-15 41.5 bid 0 wins 211.3s left
lr-4 0.0 bid 0 wins 600.0s left
lr-5 0.0 bid 0 wins 600.0s left
tot1 0.0 bid 2 wins 400.0s left
tot2 0.0 bid 2 wins 400.0s left
Round 7 winner: tot1 with bid 100.0s
tot1 100.0 bid 3 wins 300.0s left
ed-15 35.3 bid 0 wins 175.9s left
lr-4 0.0 bid 0 wins 600.0s left
lr-5 0.0 bid 0 wins 600.0s left
tot2 0.0 bid 2 wins 400.0s left
tot3 0.0 bid 2 wins 400.0s left
Round 8 winner: tot2 with bid 100.0s
tot2 100.0 bid 3 wins 300.0s left
ed-15 30.0 bid 0 wins 145.9s left
lr-4 0.0 bid 0 wins 600.0s left
lr-5 0.0 bid 0 wins 600.0s left
tot3 0.0 bid 2 wins 400.0s left
tot1 0.0 bid 3 wins 300.0s left
Round 9 winner: tot3 with bid 100.0s
tot3 100.0 bid 3 wins 300.0s left
ed-15 25.5 bid 0 wins 120.4s left
lr-4 0.0 bid 0 wins 600.0s left
lr-5 0.0 bid 0 wins 600.0s left
tot1 0.0 bid 3 wins 300.0s left
tot2 0.0 bid 3 wins 300.0s left
Round 10 winner: tot1 with bid 100.0s
tot1 100.0 bid 4 wins 200.0s left
ed-15 21.7 bid 0 wins 98.7s left
lr-4 0.0 bid 0 wins 600.0s left
lr-5 0.0 bid 0 wins 600.0s left
tot2 0.0 bid 3 wins 300.0s left
tot3 0.0 bid 3 wins 300.0s left
Round 11 winner: tot2 with bid 100.0s
tot2 100.0 bid 4 wins 200.0s left
ed-15 18.4 bid 0 wins 80.3s left
lr-4 0.0 bid 0 wins 600.0s left
lr-5 0.0 bid 0 wins 600.0s left
tot3 0.0 bid 3 wins 300.0s left
tot1 0.0 bid 4 wins 200.0s left
Round 12 winner: tot3 with bid 100.0s
tot3 100.0 bid 4 wins 200.0s left
ed-15 15.7 bid 0 wins 64.6s left
lr-4 0.0 bid 0 wins 600.0s left
lr-5 0.0 bid 0 wins 600.0s left
tot1 0.0 bid 4 wins 200.0s left
tot2 0.0 bid 4 wins 200.0s left
Round 13 winner: tot1 with bid 100.0s
tot1 100.0 bid 5 wins 100.0s left
ed-15 13.3 bid 0 wins 51.3s left
lr-4 0.0 bid 0 wins 600.0s left
lr-5 0.0 bid 0 wins 600.0s left
tot2 0.0 bid 4 wins 200.0s left
tot3 0.0 bid 4 wins 200.0s left
Round 14 winner: tot2 with bid 100.0s
tot2 100.0 bid 5 wins 100.0s left
ed-15 11.3 bid 0 wins 40.0s left
lr-4 0.0 bid 0 wins 600.0s left
lr-5 0.0 bid 0 wins 600.0s left
tot3 0.0 bid 4 wins 200.0s left
tot1 0.0 bid 5 wins 100.0s left
Round 15 winner: lr-5 with bid 120.0s
lr-5 120.0 bid 1 wins 480.0s left
tot3 100.0 bid 4 wins 100.0s left
ed-15 9.6 bid 0 wins 30.4s left
lr-4 0.0 bid 0 wins 600.0s left
tot1 0.0 bid 5 wins 100.0s left
tot2 0.0 bid 5 wins 100.0s left
Round 16 winner: lr-4 with bid 150.0s
lr-4 150.0 bid 1 wins 450.0s left
lr-5 120.0 bid 1 wins 360.0s left
tot1 100.0 bid 5 wins 0.0s left
ed-15 8.2 bid 0 wins 22.2s left
tot2 0.0 bid 5 wins 100.0s left
tot3 0.0 bid 4 wins 100.0s left
Round 17 winner: lr-4 with bid 150.0s
lr-4 150.0 bid 2 wins 300.0s left
lr-5 120.0 bid 1 wins 240.0s left
tot2 100.0 bid 5 wins 0.0s left
ed-15 7.0 bid 0 wins 15.3s left
tot3 0.0 bid 4 wins 100.0s left
tot1 0.0 bid 5 wins 0.0s left
Round 18 winner: lr-4 with bid 150.0s
lr-4 150.0 bid 3 wins 150.0s left
lr-5 120.0 bid 1 wins 120.0s left
tot3 100.0 bid 4 wins 0.0s left
ed-15 5.9 bid 0 wins 9.3s left
tot1 0.0 bid 5 wins 0.0s left
tot2 0.0 bid 5 wins 0.0s left
Round 19 winner: lr-4 with bid 150.0s
lr-4 150.0 bid 4 wins 0.0s left
lr-5 120.0 bid 1 wins 0.0s left
ed-15 5.0 bid 0 wins 4.3s left
tot1 0.0 bid 5 wins 0.0s left
tot2 0.0 bid 5 wins 0.0s left
tot3 0.0 bid 4 wins 0.0s left
RESULTS
tot1 5 wins 0.0s left
tot2 5 wins 0.0s left
tot3 4 wins 0.0s left
lr-4 4 wins 0.0s left
lr-5 1 wins 0.0s left
ed-15 0 wins 4.3s left
Example strategy file:
You can add a new strategy by make a new file in strats. You can use the following example to get you started:
strats/ere.py
import os
from main import RuleParameters
class Strategy:
def __init__(self, rule_parameters: RuleParameters):
self.name = os.path.splitext(os.path.basename(__file__))[0]
self.description = "Every Round Evenly: bid evenly in each round"
self.bid_per_round = rule_parameters.total_time / rule_parameters.num_rounds
def bid(self, round_number: int, history: list, time_left: float) -> float:
return self.bid_per_round